The Santa Claus Equilibrium
When I was a kid, I believed in Santa Claus. I genuinely internalized that an old man with a fanatic beard was flying around the world giving me presents each year. But then, I got older, and I got bolder (some, in fact, would say too bold). A curious kid, I asked too many questions, until one day I got an answer that shook me down to my 8-year-old core: Santa Claus wasn’t real. What the fuck? Who’s been eating these cookies? Is Santa Claus having an affair with my Mom? And, more importantly, do I still get presents? My mind was a clusterfuck for days (and honestly, I’m not sure that I ever recovered). But, when physics didn’t seem to corroborate Santa’s trajectories, I updated my belief system. Maybe my parents were right. Maybe Santa Claus isn’t real.
I think there’s something beautiful about being wrong. We’ve come to live in a society of certainty. We have the answers to most things; and equivalently, we think we know everything. But these two things are not the same. Realistically, nobody knows the objective truth (what is actually true) about all there is to know, even if they could consume all that we currently know. Yet, we cling to our priors -- our beliefs about objective truth -- long after it makes sense to do so. This is fallacious. Being wrong is not a weakness, but rather an indicator that you’re becoming a little less of an ignorant buffoon. I call this a Santa Claus Equilibria.
Our goal in life should be to converge to the Santa Claus Equilibrium. Fundamentally, this process is difficult. It forces us to reevaluate our priors. Do you believe what you believe because you’ve deeply thought it out? Or, are you just regurgitating what some drunk guy told you at the bar? Did you rigorously evaluate the relevant literature? Or, did you read the first article that populated your search engine in an algorithm designed to confirm your priors? Are your thoughts your own? Or, are they the product of your family, friends, social media, religion, political infrastructure, and local environment? Perhaps, you’ve fallen for the Santa Claus trap. And, once Santa Claus lures you into his North Pole dungeon, it can be hard to get out. The elves try to keep you in with their ill-contrived “dungeon science.” The reindeer warn you of Krampus, the anti Santa Claus who will drag you to hell if you disobey. Mr. Saint Nicholas himself informs you all about the dungeon’s alleged benefits. But a dungeon’s still a dungeon, even if it’s in the North Pole.
Accepting that most of our beliefs are loosely developed -- and objectively wrong (compared to what is actually true) -- is the first step to escaping the dungeon. Maybe you do not know as much as you think you know (and if you think you know what you do not know about what is not known, you should probably know the Dunning-Kruger effect). Updating our beliefs, as new information comes in, is the second step to escaping the dungeon. This process is fundamentally uncomfortable. If even my most primitive beliefs could be wrong, then who am I? However, like anything, this is a skill you can develop. The cost? Perpetual failure. Finally, not taking yourself too seriously is the last step to escaping the dungeon. Life is complex and whimsical and brief and unfair and terrifying and brilliant, all at once. Trying to objectively quantify all its behavior, all the time, is frightening. Alternatively, take a step back and realize that you’re not the center of the universe. Sometimes, the “right” answer is simple: I don’t know.
At the end of each year, I’m pleasantly surprised by how much progress I’ve made as a person. Yet, this “surprise” goes both ways. How could I have been so ignorant, a mere year ago? Perhaps, in the grand scheme of things, we never converge to the Santa Claus Equilibrium -- perhaps we just slowly inch our way out of the dungeon’s corridors. And so, as the New Year begins, I hope you reach for Santa Claus’s peni a Santa Claus Equilibria.
-- DJ Dixon, Santa Claus Aficionado
